Chapter 9 Data Apps

An Introduction to the Short Run

Explore the data of Chapter 9 without any code. Every chart below is live: hover over it to read the values, and use its buttons, menus and sliders to change what it shows.

← Back to Chapter 9: An Introduction to the Short Run

See also: Chapter 9 Model Apps, the chapter’s models without code.

U.S. fluctuations in the data

Fig. 2: Real GDP, actual and potential, across countries

Pick a country from the menu, and switch between the ratio and linear scale with the buttons; picking a country switches back to the ratio scale.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPCA), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; and the BEA’s GDP implicit price deflator (A191RD3A086NBEA), via FRED, used to express both in 2022 dollars. No agency publishes potential output before 1949, so the 1929–1948 values are our own smooth trend. Other countries: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119, real GDP at purchasing power parity (GDPVD) and potential output (GDPVTR, GDPV), from the OECD Data Explorer (dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO). Prepared files: data/ch09/fig9-2.csv and data/ch09/short_run_panel.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 9.2 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 3: Economic fluctuations in the U.S. and other countries

Click a country in the legend to add its annual short-run output, or show them all with the buttons; the shaded bands are U.S. recessions.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; the 2023 vintage of both series from the ALFRED real-time archive of the St. Louis Fed; recessions: NBER business-cycle dates, from the NBER-based recession indicator (USREC), via FRED (see the NBER’s dating page); other countries: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119, output gap (GAP), from the OECD Data Explorer (dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO). Prepared files: data/ch09/fig9-3.csv, data/ch09/recessions.csv and data/ch09/short_run_panel.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 9.3 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 4: Changes in employment across countries

Pick a country from the menu, and use the buttons to zoom on normal months, because the fall of April 2020 dwarfs everything else.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Current Employment Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS), via FRED; other countries: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119, total employment (ET, quarterly), from the OECD Data Explorer (dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO). Prepared files: data/ch09/fig9-4.csv and data/ch09/employment_quarterly.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 9.4 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 5: Inflation in the U.S. and other countries

Use the menu to pick a group of countries, then click a name in the legend to add it; the shaded bands are U.S. recessions only.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL), via FRED, annual and 12-month inflation computed by us; recessions: NBER business-cycle dates, from the NBER-based recession indicator (USREC), via FRED (see the NBER’s dating page); other countries: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Inflation, consumer prices (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), with gaps filled from the World Bank’s Global Inflation Database, and OECD Economic Outlook No. 119 CPI inflation from the OECD Data Explorer where both are missing. Prepared files: data/ch09/fig9-5.csv, data/ch09/cpi_monthly.csv, data/ch09/recessions.csv and data/ch09/short_run_panel.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 9.5 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

The Phillips curve

Fig. 7: Measuring the Phillips curve

Move the slider to change the model slope and watch the squared misses in the title; click a country in the legend to add its points.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL), via FRED; other countries: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119, output gap (GAP), from the OECD Data Explorer (dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO), and World Bank, World Development Indicators, Inflation, consumer prices (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), with gaps filled from the World Bank’s Global Inflation Database. Prepared files: data/ch09/fig9-7.csv and data/ch09/short_run_panel.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 9.7 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Okun’s law

Fig. 8: Okun’s law for the U.S. and other countries

Move the slider to change the model slope and compare the squared misses in the title, near -0.6; click a country in the legend to add its points.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; BLS, Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), via FRED; CBO, Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment, short-term (NROUST), via FRED; other countries: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119, output gap (GAP), from the OECD Data Explorer (dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO), and unemployment rate (UNR); the trend through each country’s unemployment rate is our own (Hodrick–Prescott). Prepared files: data/ch09/fig9-8.csv and data/ch09/short_run_panel.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 9.8 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.