Chapter 13 Data Apps

Stabilization Policy and the AS/AD Framework

Explore the data of Chapter 13 without any code. Every chart below is live: hover over it to read the values, and use its buttons, menus and sliders to change what it shows.

← Back to Chapter 13: Stabilization Policy and the AS/AD Framework

See also: Chapter 13 Model Apps, the chapter’s models without code.

Empirical evidence

Fig. 16: The fed funds rate, actual and predicted

Move the slider to change the real interest rate in the rule; where the actual rate lies below the rule, policy was looser.

Sources. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), via FRED; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE price index excluding food and energy (JCXFE), via FRED; for the other economies, Bank for International Settlements, central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL) and OECD, Consumer price indices, CPI excluding food and energy (DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL), via the OECD Data Explorer. Prepared files: data/ch13/taylor_rule.csv and data/ch13/taylor_rule_countries.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 13.16 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 16, other countries: policy rates, actual and predicted by the rule

Pick an economy from the menu; where the actual rate lies below the rule, as in the U.S. 1970s, policy was looser than the rule.

Fig. 17: Inflation-output loops in the U.S. economy

Switch between the two periods and the textbook’s data with the buttons; follow the years to see the loops run counterclockwise.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office, Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL), via FRED; the textbook vintage of GDP and potential GDP (30 March 2023) from ALFRED, the St. Louis Fed’s archive of past data vintages. Prepared file: data/ch13/loops_vintages.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 13.17 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 17, other countries: inflation-output loops in 40 economies

Pick an economy from the menu; each point is one year, and the output gap is the OECD’s estimate.

Sources. Data: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119, output gap (measure GAP, dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO), via the OECD Data Explorer; World Bank, World Development Indicators, Inflation, consumer prices (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), with the rows of the U.S., the U.K., the euro area and Japan from the sources of Fig. 19. Prepared files: data/ch13/output_gaps_oecd.csv and data/ch13/inflation_annual.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 13.17 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 18: Forecasting and the Great Recession

Click a forecast in the legend to hide or show it; each new forecast was revised down, and was still too high.

Sources. Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters, median forecasts of nonfarm payroll employment (EMP); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS), via FRED. The textbook figure comes from James Stock and Mark Watson, “Twenty Years of Time Series Econometrics in Ten Pictures,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31(2), 2017. Prepared file: data/ch13/fig13-18.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 13.18 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Modern monetary policy and inflation targeting

Fig. 19: Inflation in the OECD and large emerging economies

Use the buttons to list a group of countries in the legend, then click a country to add it; hover to read each year’s rate.

Sources. Data: OECD, Consumer price indices, CPI all items (DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL), via the OECD Data Explorer for the U.S., the U.K. and Japan; World Bank, World Development Indicators, Inflation, consumer prices (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG) for the euro area, Japan since 2021 and all other economies. Prepared files: data/ch13/fig13-19.csv and data/ch13/inflation_annual.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 13.19 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 21: Nearly 300 years of inflation in the United Kingdom

Hover over a point to see its 20-year window and its distance to the goal of 2 percent inflation with no volatility.

Sources. Data: Bank of England, A millennium of macroeconomic data for the UK (Thomas and Dimsdale, version 3.1), consumer price inflation to 2016, from the Bank of England research datasets; Office for National Statistics, CPI index, all items (D7BT) from 2017. The textbook figure follows Ricardo Reis (2022), “The Burst of High Inflation in 2021–22: How and Why Did We Get Here?”, London School of Economics working paper. Prepared file: data/ch13/fig13-21.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 13.21 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 21, other countries: 20-year windows of inflation since 1871

Use the buttons to list a group of countries in the legend, then click a country to add its windows; hover to read each window.

Sources. Data: Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database, release 6, consumer prices (cpi), to 2020 (Jordà, Schularick and Taylor 2017, “Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts”); World Bank, World Development Indicators, Inflation, consumer prices (FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG) after 2020; for the United Kingdom, the Bank of England and ONS series of the chart above. Prepared file: data/ch13/inflation_long_annual.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 13.21 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.