Chapter 14 Data Apps

Financial Crises and the Short-Run Model

Explore the data of Chapter 14 without any code. Every chart below is live: hover over it to read the values, and use its buttons, menus and sliders to change what it shows.

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See also: Chapter 14 Model Apps, the chapter’s models without code.

Financial frictions in the short-run model

Fig. 1: The spread between corporate bonds and 10-year Treasuries

Hover to read the two yields and the spread in a month; in normal times the spread is about 2 points.

Sources. Data: Moody’s, Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield (BAA), via FRED; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (GS10, H.15 release), via FRED. The spread, BAA minus GS10, is our own calculation. Prepared file: data/ch14/fig14-1.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.1 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 1, beyond the United States: government bond spreads in the euro area

Click a country in the legend to add it, or choose Show all in the menu; the spread is its yield minus Germany’s.

Sources. Data: OECD, Main Economic Indicators, long-term (10-year) government bond yields (IRLTLT01{CC}M156N), via FRED, e.g. Germany (IRLTLT01DEM156N) and Italy (IRLTLT01ITM156N). The spreads over Germany are our own calculation. Prepared file: data/ch14/sovereign_spreads.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.1 and the discussion of the European debt crisis in Chapter 14 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Monetary policy, the output gap and money

Fig. 4: The fed funds rate and the Taylor rule

Move the slider to change the long-run real interest rate in the rule; where the actual rate is below the rule, policy may have been too loose.

Sources. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), via FRED; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE price index excluding food and energy (PCEPILFE), via FRED; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office, Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; recession dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, business cycle dates, as the indicator USREC, via FRED. The Taylor rule and short-run output, 100 × (GDPC1 / GDPPOT − 1), are our own calculations. Prepared files: data/ch14/fig14-4.csv, data/ch14/recessions.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.4 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 4, the inputs: short-run output and core inflation

Hover to read each quarter’s values; the dashed gray line is short-run output as measured in May 2023, before later revisions.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE price index excluding food and energy (PCEPILFE), via FRED; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office, Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; the May 2023 vintages of the same two series from ALFRED, the archival FRED database (GDPC1 and GDPPOT); recession dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, business cycle dates, as the indicator USREC, via FRED. Prepared files: data/ch14/fig14-4.csv, data/ch14/recessions.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.4 (its lower panels) in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 4, beyond the United States: the Taylor rule for 14 central banks

Pick a central bank from the menu; the data are annual averages, and the gaps in Japan’s line are years without a policy rate.

Sources. Data: Bank for International Settlements, Central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL); OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119 (dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO), via the OECD Data Explorer: core inflation (PCORE_YTYPCT), headline inflation (CPI_YTYPCT, else CPIH_YTYPCT) and the output gap (GAP); European Central Bank, euro-area HICP excluding energy and food (ICP.M.U2.N.XEF000.4.ANR). The Taylor rule is our own calculation. Prepared file: data/ch14/taylor_world.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.4 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 5: What happened to potential GDP?

Hover to compare actual GDP with the two estimates of potential; click a name in the legend to hide or show it.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), via FRED; Congressional Budget Office, Real Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDPPOT), via FRED; the CBO’s 2007 estimate is the June 2007 vintage of GDPPOT in ALFRED, the archival FRED database, rebased to chained 2017 dollars. Prepared file: data/ch14/fig14-5.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.5 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 5, beyond the United States: GDP, potential and the old trend

Pick a country from the menu; the old trend extends its 1997–2007 growth, and 100 is actual GDP in 2007.

Sources. Data: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 119 (dataflow DSD_EO@DF_EO), via the OECD Data Explorer: real GDP (GDPV) and potential output (GDPVTR). The old trend (1997–2007 growth extended) is our own calculation. Prepared file: data/ch14/potential_world.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.5 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 6: The growth rate of various money supply measures

Click a name in the legend to hide or show it; the shaded bands are recessions, and M1 growth across its 2020 redefinition is left out.

Sources. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.6 Money Stock Measures, via FRED: Currency Component of M1 (CURRSL), M1 (M1SL) and M2 (M2SL); recession dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, business cycle dates, as the indicator USREC, via FRED. The 12-month growth rates are our own calculation. Prepared files: data/ch14/fig14-6.csv, data/ch14/recessions.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.6 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 6, beyond the United States: broad money growth in 166 economies

Pick a region from the menu, then click a country in the legend to add it; some huge values are breaks in the data.

Sources. Data: World Bank, World Development Indicators, Broad money growth (annual %) (FM.LBL.BMNY.ZG); euro area: European Central Bank, M3 annual growth rate (BSI.M.U2.Y.V.M30.X.I.U2.2300.Z01.A). Prepared file: data/ch14/money_world.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.6 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Bubbles in stock and home prices

Fig. 7: The price-earnings ratio in the stock market

Move the slider to choose the start of the average (the dashed line); the ratio peaked in 1929 and 1999, before big falls.

Sources. Data: Robert J. Shiller, Online Data (formerly at econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm), cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE, P/E10) from the file ie_data.xls. Prepared file: data/ch14/fig14-7.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.7 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 8: Real home prices in the United States

Move the slider to pick a boom-and-bust episode, and read its fall in the title; on the ratio scale, equal percentage changes look equally tall.

Sources. Data: Robert J. Shiller, Online Data (formerly at econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm), real home price index from the file Fig3-1.xls (since 1987 the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National index, deflated by the BLS consumer price index). Prepared file: data/ch14/fig14-8.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.8 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 8, beyond the United States: real home prices in 58 economies

Pick a region from the menu, then click a country in the legend to add it; the title reports the largest bust after a 2000–2015 peak.

Sources. Data: Bank for International Settlements, Residential property prices, real, CPI-deflated (WS_SPP, key Q..R.628). Prepared file: data/ch14/house_prices_world.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.8 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

The Fed’s balance sheet and forward guidance

Fig. 9: Financial assets of the Federal Reserve

Hover to read each layer of the Fed’s assets; click a name in the legend to hide or show it.

Sources. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, via FRED: total assets (WALCL); Treasury securities by remaining maturity, e.g. TREAS15, TREAS1T5 and TREAS10Y; mortgage-backed securities (WSHOMCB); agency debt (FEDDT); Commercial Paper Funding Facility (WCPFF). The grouping into five layers is our own. Prepared file: data/ch14/fig14-9.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.9 (a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland chart reprinted there) in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 9, beyond the United States: central bank balance sheets in 35 economies

Click a country in the legend to add it, or choose Show all in the menu; assets are measured in percent of GDP.

Sources. Data: Bank for International Settlements, Central bank total assets (WS_CBTA), percent of GDP. Prepared file: data/ch14/cb_assets_world.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.9 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 10: The fed funds rate, actual and expected

Move the slider to highlight the path markets expected in June of a year, and compare it with the rate that followed.

Sources. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), via FRED; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Treasury constant-maturity yields (H.15 release), via FRED: DGS3MO, DGS6MO, DGS1, DGS2 and DGS3. The expected paths (forward rates) are our own calculation. Prepared file: data/ch14/fig14-10.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.10 (a chart by Rudebusch 2018, FRBSF Economic Letter, reprinted there) in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

The aftermath: a productivity slowdown?

Fig. 11: U.S. total factor productivity

Move the slider to change the first year of the growth rate in the title; on the ratio scale, a steeper line means faster growth.

Sources. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, productivity program, via FRED: Private Business Sector: Total Factor Productivity (MFPPBS) and Manufacturing Sector: Total Factor Productivity (MFGPROD), rebased to 2009 = 100. Prepared file: data/ch14/fig14-11.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.11 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.

Fig. 11, beyond the United States: TFP in 120 countries

Pick a region from the menu, then click a country in the legend to add it; the title gives TFP growth since 2004.

Sources. Data: Penn World Table 11.0, TFP at constant national prices (rtfpna): Groningen Growth and Development Centre (DataverseNL). Please cite Feenstra, Inklaar and Timmer (2015), “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table,” American Economic Review 105 (10). Prepared file: data/ch14/tfp_world.csv (see the data notes). Chart: inspired by Fig. 14.11 in Jones (2024), Macroeconomics, 6th ed.